Start with break-even, not the rate headline
A refinance has closing costs. If your new payment saves $400 a month and costs run about $4,500, you break even in a little over 11 months. If you plan to keep the home longer than that, the math usually works. If you might sell next ski season, it may not.
Tahoe owners often hold properties as second homes for a decade or more. That longer horizon is why a modest rate improvement can still be the right call.